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Analysis

Have we Turned a Corner?

Kameel Majdali - 14 August 2025

“After years of debate, negotiations, threats and risks, the inevitable finally came: military action. Israel pre- emptively struck Iran’s nuclear programme, targeting nuclear facilities, scientists, and top military personnel. There was the Six-Day War of June 1967; now, the Twelve-Day War of June 2025. The combatants: Israel, Iran, and briefly, the United States. Despite the gravity of events, have we turned a corner?

The roots of this conflict stretch back to 1979, when Iran’s monarchy was overthrown and replaced by the Islamic Republic, a theocratic regime led by a Supreme Leader with sweeping powers. This Shia clerical leadership has, from day one, declared eternal hostility toward the United States (the ‘Great Satan’) and Israel (the ‘Little Satan’). For decades, Iran has waged proxy wars through groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, backed cyber attacks, and routinely called for the destruction of Israel. But not until June 2025 did the battle move from shadow warfare to open conflict—entirely fought in the air, with no boots on the ground.

A Few Observations

1. Global consensus: Few issues gain broad agreement in the West, as does Iran and nuclear weapons. The US, UN, and EU have consistently declared: Iran must not obtain nuclear arms. A nuclear Iran could destabilise the region, spark a Middle Eastern arms race, and make the actual use of a nuclear weapon
—something unseen since 1945—a very real threat. Some critics warn Iran’s clerical leadership awaits the Mahdi (Twelfth Imam) and believes a global apocalypse will precede his return. To them, nuclear war is not just acceptable—it’s desirable. That’s why so many view this regime as uniquely dangerous.

2. Israel has raised the alarm for years: The Jewish state considers an atomic Iran a grave existential threat. There is no doubt in their minds that Israel would be the first target of an Iranian nuclear attack. The Sunni Arabs consider Iran a grave threat to their nation, too.

3. A well-planned and executed military operation: Operation Rising Lion, a name based on Numbers 23:24, has been planned by Israel for many years. The precision and effectiveness of their campaign are a testament to its effectiveness. They have a lot of local operatives in Iran; planted drone launchers near key Iranian targets; and knew where everything and everyone was located; quickly gained control of Iran’s airspace and bombed Iran’s multi- site nuclear facilities, with total impunity. Despite the large number of sorties, not one plane or pilot was lost.

4. American involvement: American presidents, both Democrat and Republican, have been declaring that Iran will not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon. Bill Clinton first made this declaration in 1995, and it has been regularly repeated for the last thirty years. So, like Israel, America’s military operation, called Operation Midnight Hammer, had been planned for many years. Under the current US President Donald Trump, the ultimate deal maker who hates war, there was a big emphasis on negotiations. When that failed, and with an urgency that Iran was about to have a nuclear breakout and be able to produce a few bombs, Trump decided to attack. Regardless of what one thinks about Trump, the US, and Iran, from a military perspective, it was a grand and flawless operation. From an airbase in Missouri, 125 aircraft made a staggering thirty-seven-hour non-stop round-trip flight, refuelling several times in the air. They entered Iranian airspace around 2am and spent a total of 25 minutes from the air, while submarines offshore, bombed Iran’s three key nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordow was the key uranium enrichment site considered impregnable because it is buried deep in a mountain (perhaps half a kilometre down). For the first time ever, America dropped fourteen of its legendary 30,000-pound (13,600 kilos) bunker-busting bombs. The aircraft returned to Missouri safe and sound without being detected by Iran, and not one shot was fired.

5.Not a forever war: The Trump Administration went to great lengths to explain that their involvement was not” “about regime change or a war against Iran. The goal was strictly limited to destroying Iran’s nuclear capability.

War Over

Operation Midnight Hammer occurred early Sunday morning, 22 June 2025. On Monday, 23 June, Iran did a face-saving token counterattack on the US military base in Qatar (Iran warned the Qataris ahead of time), and on Tuesday, 24 June, the two sworn enemies Iran and Israel agreed to a Trump-brokered ceasefire. The Twelve-Day War was over.
Israel declared victory because its main military objectives had been met. The Jewish state incurred damage from Iranian retaliatory drone and ballistic missile attacks. Unlike Israel, which only attacked nuclear targets, Iran used its firepower against civilians. Several thousand apartments were badly damaged, and there were at least two dozen deaths.

What’s Next?

As of this writing, the ceasefire is fragile but holding. Whether the ceasefire continues to be honoured or the fighting flares up again, we have definitely turned a corner, and things will not be the same. We are at a pivot of history.

Trump insists everyone go back to the negotiation table. The topics: Iran must give up its uranium enrichment programme, and it must renounce its death to America and Israel mantra.
Considering that these two issues are not just part of public policy—they claim it’s part of their (Shia) theology, it will be difficult for a cleric-run regime to backtrack on its aims.

Then again, the Middle East is where you can expect the unexpected and also a place of miracles. Could the footsteps of the Messiah be at the door (James 5:9)?”

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