66% of likely in-state voters think Shapiro doing well or should do more on Israel

A new poll gives Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger in a race for re-election this fall that could serve as a stepping stone towards the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

Shapiro led state treasurer Stacy Garrity, 55% to 39%, in the New York Times-Siena College-Philadelphia Inquirer survey. Six in 10 Pennsylvania likely voters approved of Shapiro’s performance in office, with 33% disapproving.

A big Shapiro win would allow him to tout his vote-getting abilities in the most populous swing state and all but a must-win state for Democratic presidential candidates. In fact, 86% of likely Pennsylvania voters said that they were very or somewhat likely to support Shapiro if he sought the White House, and 58% said a presidential run would not prevent him from being an effective governor.

Shapiro has been a staunch supporter of Israel’s right to exist and defend itself, even as other Democrats moved away from the party’s traditional backing of the Jewish state after Oct. 7.

But he has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and has endorsed an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

The governor, who is Jewish, was the victim of an arson attack last year after hosting a Passover seder. Cody A. Ballmer, who said he was upset over Shapiro’s position on the Israel-Hamas war, pled guilty to the attack and was sentenced to 25 to 50 years in state prison.

Almost half of likely voters (47%) said that Shapiro’s position on Israel was about right, with 14% saying he was too supportive and 19% saying he was not supportive enough of the Jewish state.

About the same percentage, 43%, said Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was about right in his stand on Israel. But 30% said Fetterman, one of Israel’s staunchest backers on Capitol Hill, was too supportive of Israel and 6% said he was not supportive enough.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating stood at 39%, with 58% viewing his performance in office unfavorably. By 62% to 36%, likely voters disapproved of the way he was handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and by 66% to 32%, disapproved of his handling of the Iran war.

The poll of 760 voters was conducted Aug.17-21. The margin of error for likely voters was 4.6 percentage points.