Poll: Shapiro leads GOP challenger by 25 points in Pennsylvania governor’s race

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro leads Republican challenger and state treasurer Stacy Garrity by 25 percentage points in his reelection bid, a commanding advantage that could further bolster the Democrat’s national profile as speculation continues about a possible 2028 presidential campaign.

Shapiro, who is Jewish, leads Garrity 59% to 34% among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday. Libertarian candidate Ken Krawchuk received 2%, while 5% were undecided or declined to choose a candidate. The survey is Quinnipiac’s first of Pennsylvania likely voters in the 2026 election cycle and therefore cannot be directly compared with its earlier surveys of registered voters.

The poll underscores Shapiro’s strength in Pennsylvania, the most populous presidential battleground state and a key component of the Democratic “blue wall.” U.S. President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and again in 2024, helping him win the White House both times.

Shapiro also draws significant support outside his party as the poll found that 17% of Republicans and 62% of independents said they would vote for him. His job approval rating was 63%, while 30% disapproved.

“One of the country’s most popular governors gets a rousing endorsement from Pennsylvania’s likely voters in a race that looks like a rout,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy stated.

Pennsylvania could also play a major role in determining control of the U.S. House. Republicans currently hold 10 of Pennsylvania’s 17 U.S. House seats, including four districts that Democrats are targeting in November.

Some 54% of likely voters said they wanted Democrats to control the House after the November midterms, compared with 39% who favored Republican control. Independents backed Democrats 56% to 27%.

“With independents in strong agreement, Democrats get the nod on which party should wield the gavel in the U.S. House,” Malloy stated.

U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), meanwhile, remained underwater in the poll, with 50% of likely voters disapproving of his performance and 41% approving. His standing among Democrats was particularly poor: 72% disapproved, compared with 19% who approved. Republicans, by contrast, gave him a 74% approval rating.

Fetterman has become one of the Senate’s most outspoken Democratic supporters of Israel since Hamas attacked the Jewish state on Oct. 7, 2023.

“On this third anniversary of the Oct. 7 massacre, my commitment to our ally remains unchanged,” he wrote on Wednesday. “Israel has my full support for what’s necessary to prevail and erase the last 2,000 Hamas cowards. The world cannot ever forget the horror of that day.”

Likely voters were divided on U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), with 37% approving of his job performance, 35% disapproving and 28% having no opinion.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,159 likely Pennsylvania voters from Oct. 1-5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.