Wars and rumors of wars

“Wars and rumors of wars”. Jesus said these are one of the signs of the times preceding His return. Of course, there have always been wars. But as events unfold in the Middle East, and beyond, we must always seek to understand the times we are living in. We must remember that the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob has history in His hands. He is looking for a people who will trust only in Him, not in the strength of military might, weapons or human wisdom.

As long as we live in this broken world, awaiting the coming of Messiah, national leaders must do all they can to seek justice and righteousness. This includes protecting the Jewish people from those who seek to annihilate them – such as the Islamist form of political Islam that currently rules in Tehran. Meanwhile, the church has a unique task. As believers in the God of Israel, and in His word, our main responsibility is to “watch and pray”: discern the signs of the times; place our faith and trust in Him alone; to pray for the Peace of Jerusalem, to intercede on behalf of God’s people and of the whole creation that “groans as in the pains of childbirth” (Romans 8:22). And above all to keep our eyes focused on heaven from where we eagerly await our Saviour (Philippians 3).

Last Saturday morning Israel and the US launched a coordinated military campaign against the revolutionary Islamist regime in Iran. The conflict is now reaching the end of its first week. Here are some highlights and observations.

This is not a new war, but a new phase in an ongoing armed conflict that was initiated by the revolutionary regime. Since it took power in 1979, it has built institutions, strategies and operations directed at imposing its ideology on the people of Iran and exporting its apocalyptic, Islamist ideology around the world. This involved deliberately attacking Jews and Israeli and US citizens across the globe. Through its vast network of proxies and allies it has built a massive military-political-commercial network directed at undermining the West. The final step was to develop nuclear weapons which would enable it to destroy the infidels.

Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion were launched when Israel and the US believed there was a real and immediate danger that the Iranian regime would be able to attack with nuclear weapons. They have focused so far on reducing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, eliminating its nuclear regime and destroying its air defenses and other offensive military hardware. The US claims that it has destroyed Iran’s navy.

A key focus has been taking out key political and military leaders. Ayatollah Khamenei and many of the regime’s political and military leaders have been killed. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the regime’s main political/military arm – is still functioning and in control of the country.

The US quickly took control of the airspace over Iran. It has made significant inroads in destroying Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. By March 5th the Islamic Republic had already launched roughly 585 ballistic missiles and 1500 drones. Tehran’s remaining missile and drone combat formations continue to fight and still pose a serious threat. However, Tehran’s missile and drone salvos have declined by roughly 70-85% since the first day of strikes.

 

 

Some of these drones and missiles were directed at Israel, but the majority were directed against Gulf Arab states: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. This suggests that Iran seeks to create a regional war, thereby pressuring Washington via its gulf Arab partners. If this is the goal, it has so far been a failure. It remains to be seen whether the gulf Arab states will fight back and conduct offensive operations in response.

Tehran has even reportedly launched a ballistic missile towards Türkiye – a country that is also driven by a radical Islamist ideology but is also a host to key US assets and the only NATO member that borders Iran. Strikes on NATO facilities in Türkiye risk triggering greater NATO involvement which could draw European countries into the conflict.

On March 5th drones originating from Iran struck the passenger terminal of Azerbaijan’s International Airport injuring 2 people. While Iranian officials have denied involvement, this could indicate a widening of the conflict and even increase in stability within Iran given the large ethnic Azerbaijani population within the Islamic Republic.

Another regional development concerns Lebanon. Hezbollah responded by attacking Israel on the northern border. The Lebanese government called for Hezbollah’s military to be disbanded. Israel has launched ground and air operations into Lebanese territory.

The conflict is already seriously disrupting global energy markets. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (which handles about one fifth of global oil consumption and LNG trade) has nearly come to a halt. Oil production in the Gulf states has been disrupted. Energy prices are sky-rocketing. Qatar’s energy minister suggested that this war “could bring down the economies of the world”.

International law

There is a lot of discussion about whether this military campaign is legal under international law. The justification from a legal perspective revolves around the precise scope of the right of states to self-defense, which is an exception to the general prohibition on the use of force against sovereign states and on interference with their political independence. The main argument in favour of legality is that this is part of a longer war that was initiated not by Israel or the United States but by the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran. In this context, both Israel and the United States have the right to take proportionate and necessary military action to protect themselves from the regime’s incessant attacks on their citizens throughout the world, and to eliminate the threat – possibly a very real threat – that the regime would be very soon in a position to launch long range ballistic nuclear missiles capable of reaching Europe, Israel and even the United States. The precise nature of the threat, and whether or not this is a necessary and proportionate response, are matters for debate. Currently, we do not have the information necessary to reach a conclusive answer.

But this obsession with international law reveals something deeper: An absence of a clear moral framework for analyzing and understanding conflicts of this nature. International law is only intended to provide a set of guidelines for political action. It is not, and cannot be, a detailed prescription for the foreign policy choices that must be made in any given situation. In fact, subservience to overly legalistic reasoning is likely to prevent the kind of political and military action that is necessary to confront the highly complex nature of the existential threat posed by political Islam to the West.

The bigger geopolitical picture

There is a larger geopolitical dimension that is often overlooked but is becoming increasingly apparent. It concerns China and Russia. The war on the regime in Tehran is likely intended, at least in part, to address China’s stronghold on key strategic assets that are essential to the West. As analyst Haviv Rettig Gur observes, Iran is strategically and economically very important for China, and China in turn is highly dependent on Iran. Russia too has deeply entwined interests. The US is systematically removing key partners in China’s ambitions for global hegemony. One of those was Venezuela. Another is the revolutionary regime in Iran.

What does the future hold?

It is impossible to predict how this conflict will play out. There are many unknowns. There has been much uncertainty about what exactly are the longer-term goals of this campaign, and whether the US has a strategy for achieving those goals. According to President Trump the US seeks not only to remove Iran’s military threat but also to provide space for the Iranian people to “seize control” and reclaim their country. However, it is not clear that the US understands how military intervention and destruction of the current regime will lead to regime change. Nobody seems to have a road map. Iran is a vast country with many different nationalities and minorities. There are visible tensions between Reza Pahlavi, whose ambition is to lead Iran towards a new future, and the Kurdish dissident groups. Even assuming the US and Israel are successful in winning this phase of the war militarily, it remains to be seen whether all of these groups will be able to work together to rebuild the nation peacefully. They need our prayers and support.

Analyst Andrew Fox warns that while the Ayatollahs and their clerics may be eliminated, the IRGC and Basij (Iranian paramilitary force numbering in the hundreds of thousands) may not be so easy to remove as the US had hoped. The war “risks falling between two stools. It is no longer just a narrow strike meant to punish or deter; the enemy always has a say, and Iran has caused enough damage to energy supply mechanisms to seriously harm the global economy. We have not seen any concrete plan for political transition, stabilisation or reconstruction so far. The war has destroyed enough to upset the old balance of power, but not enough to establish a better one… As a matter of statecraft, this war may end up being an extraordinary act of irresponsibility”.

This week, continue to pray for the Peace of Jerusalem. Pray for the people of Iran, that they will be freed from the tyranny of the current regime. Pray for the leaders of Israel and the United States and all nations affected by this crisis – that they will act with restraint yet take whatever action is necessary to eliminate evil. Pray for the speedy coming of our Lord and Savior: the Messiah of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.

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America’s war – not Israel’s
Haviv Rettig Gur: In a moment when pundits argue over Israel, regime change, and partisan loyalties, I lay out a different frame — two chessboards, one regional and one global — and argue that what looks like another Middle Eastern conflagration is in fact a pivotal move in a far larger US–China confrontation. If we misunderstand that, we will misunderstand everything that follows: America’s resolve, Iran’s desperation, and the shape of the world that may emerge from this fire.

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